DETECTIVE Inspector John Rebus would love this.
Four weeks ago today, the case appeared to be closed. Ian Murray was staying as Dumbarton manager after signing a new two-year deal.
But now fresh evidence has come to light and investigations are open again. Hibernian – supported by Ian Rankin’s fictional creation Rebus – are looking for a new manager after sacking Terry Butcher.
And with Murray having such an illustrious history down Easter Road way, as well as his rising stock as a gaffer, there are no prizes for guessing that his name will be mentioned.
However, having signed his new two-year contract at Dumbarton less than a month ago, the boss is building an empire to launch an all-out assault on a once-in-a-lifetime Championship next season.
As well as Hibs, Sons can look ahead to jousts with Hearts and Rangers. But what does the shorter-term future hold?
Here is analysis of why Murray may be tempted by an approach from Hibs – and also why that new contract may be the best decision he’s made as a manager yet.
Five reasons to twist
1. Why wouldn’t Hibernian want him?
There can be few first-time managers with a more impressive CV at a part-time club than Murray has achieved in his 18 months at Dumbarton. It started with the great escape from relegation in season 2012/13 after he inherited a side with eight points from its first 13 league games. Then there was last season, which took until the very last kick of the ball to absolutely officially rule Sons out of the promotion race. It also included the club’s first Scottish Cup quarter final since 1979 – a tie against Aberdeen where, had Paul McGinn’s injury time header ended a foot lower, a replay would have been secured. How can achievements like that not make Murray a marketable commodity to any side?
2. The chance to manage his boyhood heroes
Murray has an iconic place in Hibernian’s recent history, with more than 250 league appearances since making his debut as a teenager in January 2000. And just as an added bonus, he grew up following them from the Easter Road terraces. In this day and age, where former players are invariably linked with returning to their former clubs when there’s a vacancy, his name will not go away as long as Hibs are searching for a manager, like it or not.
3. Murray holds all the aces
How can this be true when he signed a contract offered to him by the club less than a month ago? Because, in the long run, there’s always a way out of a contract. If Hibs won’t cough up the two years’ compensation that Sons would be due, then Murray can always resign of his own accord and make himself free to take up a new post. And one of the managers he learned his trade from? Alex McLeish, who did just that with the Scotland job to become manager of Birmingham City in 2007.
4. The chance may not come again for some time
Although Hibs aren’t exactly known for giving their managers a long spell in charge, there’s always the possibility that the next gaffer could be the one to give Jose Mourinho sleepless nights. If that man is at Easter Road for the long term, when is the hot seat going to become free again? And where will Murray be when it does?
5. Is there more to achieve with Dumbarton?
Where does a part-time club go after finishing fifth in the SPFL Championship and only officially missing out on the play-offs on the last day? How do you follow up a season like that without breaking new barriers for such a club? And if you do, how can you avoid the interest there will be in your players at the end of the season?
Five reasons to stick
1. Easter Road – a managerial graveyard
Since winning the League Cup in 2007, as John Collins’ team demolished Kilmarnock 5-1, Hibs’ record is hardly likely to threaten the club’s hall of fame. Butcher’s two immediate predecessors, Pat Fenlon and Colin Calderwood, have not managed in their own right since leaving Easter Road, with Calderwood now assistant at Norwich City. Of the club’s five previous managers, only Fenlon has resigned, the others being sacked or departing by mutual consent. It’s hardly a selling point for any gaffer, particularly one who has built a promising future for himself as Murray has done.
2. The heat is on
Be in no doubt – if Hibernian do not win promotion at the end of season 2014/15 then the manager’s future will be up for speculation again. Usually that would be straightforward in the second tier of Scottish football for a club so readily associated with the top flight. But this is a Championship like no other. Hearts and Rangers will have similar aspirations to Hibs – and there’s only room for two of them to go up. Being the odd one out will leave whoever is in charge at Easter Road in a perilous position.
3. Crisis point
Right now, relegation at the end of last season seems to be the least of Hibs’ worries. Off the pitch, they had 1,500 fans recently staging a demonstration against chairman Rod Petrie. Although Leeann Dempster, as chief executive, is now the main figurehead at Easter Road, Petrie’s lingering presence continues to frustrate the supporters. If he’s still there at the start of the season then the unrest in the stands is bound to have an effect on what happens on the pitch, making life difficult for the new manager. There’s also the matter of many spaces needing filled in the first-team squad with pre-season just around the corner. Some challenge.
4. When is the right time to step up?
There are managers up and down the country, David Moyes for one, who wish they knew the answer to that question. When does a rookie manager make the step up? A decade in charge of Everton wasn’t enough to make Moyes a success at Manchester United. Brendan Rodgers came close to last season’s Premier League title with Liverpool having only managed Swansea in the top flight for two years. Once you’ve made the step up, the ball is spinning around the roulette wheel. There’s no going back. Is one full season in charge of Dumbarton enough to prepare Murray for the next level?
5. Is there more to achieve with Dumbarton?
Exactly the same question as the last of the reasons to twist. And the answer – YES. Murray has already moved Dumbarton into new territory, guiding them last season into more than a position of safety – a position of imperiousness. Sons’ part-time squad finished above full-time Livingston, Raith and Morton, along with fellow part-timers Alloa and Cowdenbeath. Merely finishing above those last two was the season’s original goal. They could finish eighth this time around and the season would still be a success – but why shouldn’t they aim higher than that? It wasn’t so long ago that Third Division teams looked forward to visiting the Rock. Now you have a season ahead where teams like Hearts, Hibernian and Rangers, will treat the trip with great trepidation. It’s a campaign to relish that lies ahead – and the right man is in charge of Sons.
So what happens now?
Very little, going by all the signs so far. Hibs have already said that Butcher’s assistant, Maurice Malpas, is on holiday and will be informed of his fate when he returns. Any new manager is going to want clarity on whether they can bring their own coaching staff.
It is the hope of everyone at Dumbarton that Ian Murray’s only trips to Easter Road next season will be as Sons manager. His success while in charge at the Rock has exceeded all expectations. However, with that comes interest from other clubs. Murray is already the bookmakers’ favourite and the reasons why are strikingly obvious.
But Dumbarton have done all they can. They did it four weeks ago.
Now they must hope that Murray’s signature, which that day was signed on the dotted line, is enough.
The Dumbarton Terrace 