SO far the balancing act is working out. The scales sit neatly poised, with almost equal content in each tray.
A huge weight is about to be added – one much heavier than anything used so far. By placing it in one tray, you are potentially one of four teams joint top of the group, on seven points. You’ll have played arguably your two toughest fixtures already, and have a path towards judgement day that you’d readily accept. However, if the weight goes on the other side, the worst-case scenario is that you are already six points adrift of the two automatic qualification places, and three short of the play-off spot. It’s not over by any stretch of the imagination, but you’ll know what an opportunity you’ve missed, and that it’s much more difficult for you than it could have been. So…where’s it going?
That, in a few sentences, is the scenario facing Scotland on Friday, with the Republic of Ireland coming to Celtic Park for game four of 10 in the Euro 2016 qualifiers. We’ve been in a situation like this before – and messed it up during the error-strewn reigns of George Burley and Craig Levein. However, under Gordon Strachan, there’s a different feeling ahead of facing the Irish. We’ve taken four points from our opening three games, including trips to Germany and Poland, winning the only game where we were stonewall favourites for victory, at home to Georgia. Despite the two points which got away fairly late in the evening in Warsaw, that’s something that would have been acceptable to most before a ball was kicked. Now we’ve reached the first checkpoint.
Our trip to France just over 18 months from now hinges on matches like this. Teams qualify for finals by winning these games – not often by drawing them and very rarely by being beaten. We’ve discovered that to our cost far too often in this type of fixture over the last few campaigns. In fact, if you want to find an example of us winning a meaningful game against one of our main rivals to qualify, you have to go back to October 2007. James McFadden running on to a low ball, leaving the Ukraine defence for dead and sealing a 3-1 win at Hampden which kept our hopes of reaching Euro 2008 alive. Since then, our record in these must-win games is little short of dire. Norway at home, October 2008 – Chris Iwelumo and that miss. 0-0. Czech Republic at home, September 2011 – Danny Wilson and the late penalty. 2-2. Serbia at home, September 2012 – 0-0. The start of a wretched campaign which resulted in us being officially the first European team out of the World Cup.
But for all the failures of that term, we may be about to unearth a positive. Also in that group were Croatia. By the time we first played them, in Zagreb in June 2013, our hopes of Brazil were gone, but the game still meant something to the hosts. A single Robert Snodgrass goal later, we were doing what we were capable of doing against teams we viewed as rivals to qualify. When the teams reconvened at Hampden last October, the match was a dead rubber, with Croatia already in the play-offs having conceded first place to Belgium. However, Snodgrass scored again and Steven Naismith rounded off a 2-0 win. So that’s two games against a team which went on to reach the World Cup finals and were holding Brazil all the way until a dodgy penalty swung it in the South Americans’ favour. We won both and didn’t concede a goal. So who says we can’t compete in these fixtures?
We’ll be up against tough opposition on Friday, no doubt about that. Tough opposition who’ll be desperate to get another game in after their excellent and heroic 1-1 draw away to Germany in their last outing. Typical of teams managed by Martin O’Neill. His Celtic, Aston Villa and Sunderland sides made a habit of producing battling, spirited performances which were, fairly often, rewarded late in the day. If we are privileged enough to find ourselves in a winning position, Scotland must not stop until their visitors are finally beaten. And that is highly unlikely to come before the Serbian referee Milorad Mazic whistles for the final time on the evening.
However, it’s not a task we should be fearing. Fear it and we will not win. This campaign has already seen Scotland play some of their best attacking football since the close-but-no-cigar efforts to qualify for Euro 2008. Steven Naismith is arguably in the best form he’s been since he joined Rangers from Kilmarnock in 2007 – his performance as the lone striker in Germany was as good as any over the years. Other players are playing well, and more importantly playing at a good level regularly. And perhaps most importantly, we have a manager who can get the best out of players at the highest level. That bit in the previous paragraph about Ireland not knowing when they’re beaten? How many times did Strachan’s Celtic, in the Champions League, turn defeats into draws, draws into wins, in the final seconds?
We can beat Ireland. We SHOULD beat Ireland. We should have beaten Norway, the Czech Republic and Serbia. But this time there’s a different feeling. One of optimism and endeavour as the checkpoint looms. We go into it feeling satisfied with how we’ve done so far. But when we head where we’re heading on Saturday – in Dumbarton’s case, Livingston – we’ll feel differently. The mood will either be an all-too-familiar one of missed opportunity. Or one we’ve arguably not experienced since that McFadden goal against Ukraine. One where we can truly feel confident about our chances of qualifying for a major finals again.
The Dumbarton Terrace 