St Mirren – where did it all go wrong?

Please note that ALL content on The Dumbarton Terrace is copyright and may not be reproduced in any form without the author’s prior permission.

THREE weeks ago today, David Van Zanten and Lee Mair were taking to Twitter to record a special anniversary.

Although now players at Dumbarton, they had every right to remember a day two years ago when they were part of something extraordinary. The day the underdogs of St Mirren, despite going a goal down, beat Hearts 3-2 in the League Cup final. Van Zanten started, Mair came on as an injury time sub. However long anyone from Paisley was involved in that day, it’s imprinted on their memory.

Fast forward two years and three weeks. The manager who was in charge of the Buddies that day was unveiled in a new job – one where he has realistic ambitions of avoiding the drop. One thing is for sure – Danny Lennon has more chance of doing that with Alloa, in the Championship, than his former club does a league higher. That same day, St Mirren headed to Motherwell’s Fir Park knowing they were already up against it. They came back along the M8 contemplating several mountains to be climbed.

Five-nil. Five-nil, eh? Not just a defeat against the team closest to you – an absolute mutilation. Had the Saints won against the Steelmen, they would be four points behind them and, with Ross County at home next, would have given themselves a real foothold. Now, barring a fightback that would make that day at Hampden seem pedestrian by comparison, they’re heading for the Championship. Van Zanten and Mair, if still with Dumbarton next season, will be returning to Greenhill Road as opposition players.

And of course, Lennon will be back in Paisley in the away dugout if his remit to keep Alloa in the Championship is met. You really wouldn’t blame him for feeling a real sense of edge to the game if he was to return to St Mirren in charge of the Wasps. His departure from the hot seat was the start of a downward spiral for the Buddies which may take some time to recover from.

So where has it gone wrong?

Lennon’s contract at St Mirren was left to expire after an eighth-placed finish to his fourth season in charge. His previous three campaigns had seen his team finish 11th, eighth and 11th (the last of those with the League Cup won). So why did the board take that action when he’d just matched his best league finish? And what exactly was the expectation? Top six? If so, maybe that came about as a result of the League Cup victory. Lennon had become a victim of his own success.

As it turned out, his departure was a case of out of the frying pan and into the fire, and when that didn’t work out, it was into another, bigger blaze. Tommy Craig is a more than successful coach, but prior to his appointment, his CV as a club manager in his own right amounted to half a season with Charleroi. What was more, he was part of a regime at Paisley which the board deemed to have failed. He was a real roll of the dice.

When that roll didn’t pay off, in December, the board gambled again. Gary Teale was appointed as interim manager. Four months on, to all intents and purposes he is still in charge on an interim basis. His contract is solely to the end of the current campaign, one which looks set to end in failure. His experience as a manager was even less than Craig’s and, despite a handful of victories away from home, that gamble has not paid off either.

What about on the pitch?

That hasn’t worked. In recent years St Mirren have gambled on a number of unknown players from outside Scotland. Lennon’s signings included the likes of Paul Dummett, now an established first team player at Newcastle, along with experienced forward Esmael Goncalves. From home, Lennon brought the likes of Darren McGregor to the club from the lower leagues, while fans’ favourite Paul McGowan was also his signing. There were many new boys who failed to make an impression, but it was worth it for the ones who did.

This season, players brought to the club by his replacements have not cut the mustard. Ross Caldwell was signed having endured a near enough unsuccessful loan spell at Alloa from Hibernian, while signings like Adam Drury and Callum Ball have barely been noticed. Also, the likes of James Marwood and Ellis Plummer could be pub quiz questions in Paisley in years to come – anyone remember when they played for the local club?

By January it was clear a real blue chip signing was needed. The closest they got was Alan Gow, whose lengthy CV of various clubs suggests he isn’t viewed as a long-term prospect. Meanwhile, part of the family silver, Kenny McLean, was sold to Aberdeen. He hasn’t been replaced.

One area where St Mirren have got it right this season is growing their own players, with the likes of Jason Naismith and Sean Kelly getting regular chances in the first team. However, signing activity simply has not been great this season.

Is there ANY way back?

The result at Fir Park is an enormous blow – not just because St Mirren lost, but the margin of their defeat. How do you recover from that, morale-wise, to face a flying Ross County side live on TV six nights later? If the Buddies are going to give themselves any chance, they’ll have to win that game. They’re as well losing it as they are drawing.

They’ll face Motherwell and Ross County again after the split, along with Partick Thistle and Kilmarnock, who aren’t necessarily safe from the play-off spot just yet. Points from ALL those games are a necessity, with at least three victories to add to any prospective win over County next week. The more you consider the situation, the more impossible it gets to see Saints pulling it off. But teams have recovered in this situation before…well, one must have at some point.

Will they come straight back up (assuming they do have to contemplate doing such a thing)?

That’s a long way off being certain – Rangers and/or Hibernian will still be around in the 2015/16 Championship and will start the season as strong favourites. If both are there, then any push for an instant return to the top flight is going to be horrendously difficult. And even if it is just one of them, that won’t make it much easier. Teams like Falkirk and Queen of the South will view the season as an opportunity to get themselves among the elite, most likely as play-off winners behind their rivals from either Glasgow or Edinburgh.

Also, St Mirren don’t have a good record of bouncing back from relegation when it’s happened to them in recent decades. The last time they fell out of the top flight was in 2001 – it took them five seasons to return there. Before that, relegation from the Premier Division in 1992 was followed by eight years in the second tier before the title celebrations of 2000.

It is, of course, changed days in Paisley since their previous two removals from Premier football in Scotland. Players and managers have come and gone and there’s even a new stadium. But all of the above suggests that Championship football, barring a major strengthening exercise over the close season, will be a longer-term project.

And in the meantime?

Keep developing the youngsters – although second tier status may well force John McGinn, an outstanding prospect, out of the door to a higher level. Fellow youngster Stevie Mallan, and others, may not stay to compete in a Championship which isn’t going to be as glamorous next season as it has been in this one. However, the likes of Naismith and Kelly may benefit from taking a step back in order to move forward.

As soon as St Mirren’s fate is confirmed, which may not be far off, arrangements for the managerial position have to be made as soon as possible. In truth, since Lennon’s departure, it’s been a tightrope position. Craig was on a hiding to nothing as part of the previous regime while Teale’s contract is only until the end of the current term. Someone has to be appointed on at least a two-year deal, who knows how to get a team playing at this level and can take them to the next one. Having already sacked one manager, the Buddies may not be in a position to employ a manager who is currently in a job.

There is one positive, though. The Championship has already lost the Edinburgh derby. Anyone for the first league meetings in 16 years between St Mirren and Morton?